Soliciting Common Sense
Our BD associate Holly and I were on a walk the other day laughing about the fact that the 292-word disclosure that follows this what-ever-it-is has in some cases been longer than some of this season’s whatever-these-are.
I don’t blame our CLO Taylor for that. He’s just doing his best trying to keep us unfined and out of jail. But I do think the rules we have to play by have lost some tether to common sense. Because God forbid someone who is not already verifiably wealthy buy a piece of a cash-flowing business rather than use their phone to bet $10K on a four-leg parlay.
One of my guilty pleasures is Barstool Sports Advisors – a weekly pro football picks show on the internet. I watch not because I bet on games (there are other, better capital allocation opportunities), but because I find it entertaining (if occasionally profane) and because I’m interested in sports, predictions, and probability.
In the last episode of the season just concluded the Jersey Jerry character, before giving his picks, laments his 65-68-1 record as “not his best year on the show” only to be corrected by the director Hank, ever the straight man, that that was, in fact, his best year on the show.
Apparently, the 10,000-hour rule does not apply.
I mention this because while this publication is very clearly not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation of any security, financial instrument, or other product, every other billboard along I-70 here in Missouri is now a very obvious (and sometimes salacious) solicitation to download a sports betting app and get hooked, which seems like a fantastic way for people who can’t afford it to lose a lot of money.
I’m not sure how or why that makes sense. That’s because, as investment strategist Michael Mauboussin noted in his most recent white paper, “the probability you will see a gain in your diversified stock portfolio is about 54% for a day, 63% for a month…75% for a year…[and] over 15 years or longer is very close to 100%.”
That’s relevant because I suspect the stats for a gambling app over the same time frames would look almost exactly like one minus those probabilities.
But let me be clear: this is not me advocating for more regulation. I think people, for the most part, and particularly when it comes to their money, should be able to do what they want.
What I would advocate for, though, when it comes to what gets 292-word disclosures and what gets put on a billboard, is common sense.
P.S. If you have kids, talk to them about online gambling. Younger people are driving massive growth in sports betting and gambling addiction is a progressive disorder.
– Tim
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