It Has to Work
One of the books I read over spring break – because my wife recommended it – was Project Hail Mary (now apparently also an excellent movie starring one of Holly’s favorite actors, Ryan Gosling, who is definitely not Ryan Reynolds).
If you haven’t read it, the plot (no spoilers) is that a guy wakes up alone in outer space, light years away from Earth, with amnesia and realizes as his memories return that he’s there to save the world from an alien parasite that is sucking energy out of the sun. It’s sort of a physics/biology textbook meets sci-fi thriller meets Memento with some (potential spoiler alert) Jurassic Park Ian Malcolm vibes at the end, and it’s not bad.
As more and more memories come back, you learn how he ended up in that position, including how such an advanced spacecraft was designed and built. One of the things that struck me as that process was described is that there is intentionally no AI onboard – only well-worn algorithmic software. It’s explained that the reason for that is that if you find yourself alone in space, light years from Earth, the most important thing to have isn’t necessarily the most advanced technology, but the most reliable technology that works. Neural networks, the book suggests, are too unpredictable to be trusted given the high stakes.
I thought about that as I read a white paper Emily drafted and circulated internally about how the widespread adoption of AI might impact different kinds of business models. After all, people are still trying to figure out if AI might displace, augment, redistribute, or amplify people and products and on what timeline. But what I said to Emily is that for smaller businesses, the types we work with, it might be the case – at least for now – that the right answer is the Project Hail Mary approach: stick with well-worn algorithmic software.
That’s because at small businesses the team might be thin, the balance sheet might not have much ballast, and there might be supplier or customer concentration. So if a critical tool behaves unreliably and that unreliability leads to disruption, the disruption could snowball into catastrophe.
This, I know, runs counter to the more widespread view that AI technology will help small businesses save costs, generate revenue, and scale faster. But I’m torn.
That’s because small business isn’t saving the world, of course, but it’s still high stakes stuff.
– Tim
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