Remember Bad Presidents
Back on Presidents’ Day of this year (which I punctuated incorrectly at the time and that’s on me), I pointed out three things, two of which I will repeat here because they remain germane.
One: My former direct report Morgan Housel says that the most controversial piece he ever wrote based on reader feedback was this one. Called “The Best Presidents for the Economy,” it presented historical data about how “the stock market, corporate profits, GDP, and inflation have done under every president since Teddy Roosevelt.” While those tables have disappeared from that article, here’s the updated data on real GDP growth:
Like Morgan did, I will simply leave that there and let you “create a story around it as you wish.”
And two: When it comes to politics, “epistemic spillovers” are a thing. What this means is that if you agree with some politically, you are more likely to take their guidance and advice on other matters even if that person has no relevant knowledge in that domain. This leads to “suboptimal information-seeking decisions and errors in judgment.” Keep that in mind and try to remain objective about non-political decisions today, tomorrow, and every day after no matter who your decision involves.
That all said, I hope you voted for a reasoned choice all the way down your ballot. I’m not always an enthusiastic voter (it’s hard to be one after you’ve lived and worked in DC!), and I will be glad when this rigmarole that sucks all of the oxygen out of the room and pushes up CPCs for real businesses is over, but I’m glad both my and your opinions matter. Here’s to bright days ahead.
– Tim
